The Looming Shutdown

Tomorrow could be an interesting day in my world of forecasting business trends.  This Government has done pretty much everything possible to screw up our feeble recovery.  From the Republicans' Obamacare fight (ignoring the larger spending problem - even ADDING to spending merely to repeal Obamacare) to the President's unwillingness to do any negotiation to Harry Reid's idea that negotiation is "give me everything I want, and we'll talk later."

This was wholly unnecessary.  The Republicans zeroed in on Obamacare at the expense of entitlement spending.  They successfully took focus off the President's signature legislation and turned onto themselves....all negative.  The better strategy would have been to force the bill to be implemented as written and focus on bigger spending problems we have; let Obamacare collapse in on itself and propose true free-market solutions to fix the entire mess.

The president has been no better. His list of negotiable items was so short, it could be written on a 1x1 post-it note.  He's claimed a willingness to compromise, but the amount he's been willing to move is so miniscule it's hardly detectible.

And then there's Harry Reid.  He's said he'll talk after the debt ceiling is raised and Sequester 2.0 (I still can't call an 83% open government "shut down") is ended.  This would be like offering to buy a car, getting the seller to sign over the title and handing over the keys, and then negotiating a price several months later.

And who's to blame?  We are.  You and me.  We cast our ballots, and we got what we voted for.  I've talked to several people at conferences lately, and they all say the same thing: elections have consequences.  I guess we have ours. 

The New Conservatives - It's Time

I've changed my mind about the Republican Party.  I used to think that the party needed to purge the Lindsay Grahams, Peter Kings, John McCains and Olympia Snowes.  No longer.

It's time for a true third party to rise. It's time for the Ted Cruz's, the Mike Lees, the Rand Pauls, the Rick Perrys, the Bobby Jindahls and the Nikki Haleys to rally under a new banner truly built on the principles of liberty and smaller government.  It's time to put our house of state in order, not attempt to manage the affairs of the world. It's time for the Marco Rubios and the Mitt Romneys choose their political allegiances.

Let the Republican and Democratic parties reunite under one party.  Let them fight among themselves about the rate of expansion within the government.  It's time for a new voice.  It's time for those who just want to be left alone to rally and be heard.  It's time to push back on being labeled simply to avoid debate.

It's time for a new party constructed by and for the people, not just for the special interests. It's time for a party focused on the First Principles of the Constitution.  It's time for a party unashamed to say no.  It's time for a party to foster personal responsibility and community care, not an excuse to allow an inefficient government to absorb the roles of local charities, school boards and town councils.

It's time.

The Emotional Issues with Gen X and Gen Y

I'm not a psychologist, and I feel that qualifies me to talk about emotional issues.  Hey, Oprah and Maury Povich do all the time, so why not me?  Before I get into the topic at hand, I should start by saying this: I should never eat lunch alone, especially when I'm taking cold & allergy medication; I think that may have been the cause of this post.

Now on to the topic at hand.  It dawned on me the source of the emotional problems in my generation.  While I grew up in an age with MTV, rampant violence in entertainment, broken homes, overly high - or overly low - expectations, academic pressure and rampant materialism, I don't think that's the problem. No, I blame The Oregon Trail and the Choose Your Own Adventure book series.

"Seriously, ReallyAsa?  Oregon Trail and Choose Your Own Adventure? These were great learning tools, getting kids interested in learning history and decision-making skills."  True, they did teach those things, but they taught a whole lot more.

Let's start with The Oregon Trail.  The player, some eight-year-old in Mrs. Padenska's Red reading group, finishes his assignments early and gets to play on the computer for 1/2 hour.  He chooses to be the doctor, since he starts with the most money, and names the travelers after Gramma, PopPop, and his baby sister.  During the course of the game, he hunts and trades...and watches the entire party die of a high fever, dysentery and starvation.  Wow.  Some eight-year-old killed his entire family, all because he earned computer time for finishing his vocabulary worksheet early.

Onto Choose Your Own Adventure. That same eight-year-old rushes home with his latest installment from his book series. Mystery, intrigue, treasure - what's not to like?  It's like the other stories he's read, but he gets to be the protagonist AND gets to dictate the story by the choices he makes. It's like an arcade game in printed form. He chooses his path through the house, he navigates his way....and BAM! "You died."  What?! He goes back and tries again - same result.  Wow.

This post is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but there are some serious undertones.  While these tools taught problem-solving skills, the stakes portrayed were high and the decisions were left somewhat to chance.  There was little in the way of learning to weigh the options; it was more of a lottery approach.

Fast forward to high school, college, employment, marriage.  The lessons taught may have inadvertently paralyzed some from making decisions.  What if my college choice is a dud?  What if I choose the wrong career path?  What if someone better comes along?

We need to be cautious of the educational and entertainment choices we select in Choosing our Adventure of life.

The Debt Ceiling - My Doomsday Scenario

First, let me preface this by saying I doubt this will happen.  That said, it's a real possibility.

Today is the first day of the Federal Government shutdown.  Recent history - recent as in the past 5 years - has shown Congress is so entrenched that compromise is nearly impossible. And this is the precursor to the bigger showdown: the debt ceiling debate.

Maybe today's shutdown will delay our reaching the Congressionally-imposed debt ceiling by a few days, and maybe that will delay what I think could be a major crisis in this nation. When the debt ceiling is reached, however, stakes will be raised.

Here is what I see as the potential, however unlikely, scenario. Congress has the responsibility to authorize borrowing and spending per the Constitution (I could spell out the enumerated powers, but I'll let you read the Constitution; sections 7.1 and 8.2 are starters).  Provided Congress cannot agree upon a new spending limit, things start moving.

Some are arguing the President violate The Constitution, because, to ignore it, is to violate other aspects of his oath.  This is where things get interesting. At this point, I won't discuss what I see are the potential financial implications; I'll stick to the political.

Should the President ignore the debt and continue to borrow, the House will have no choice but to draw up Articles of Impeachment. The House will, most likely approve the charges, and the Senate will then be forced to try the case.  Given the Senate's loyalty to the President, I doubt they will convict.

Once the President is cleared of the charges, Texas, Oklahoma and, potentially, Arizona and the Carolinas, will withdraw their Congressional representation - leaving their Senators to continue to voice protest - and cast no-confidence votes in the Federal Government.  When this happens, they will withdraw all participation in Federal programs.  Other states will hold votes to determine their stance.

I doubt this will play out, but it's not out of the question.  What will happen?  We shall see.